The Fox Hole: Fantasy Hoops Primer

So it's time to sit down for your 2009 Fantasy Basketball draft. Did you get the Number One Pick? If so, congratulations! You get to choose between Chris Paul and LeBron James as the anchor of your fantasy hopes over the next six months. Did you get the third pick? Will it be Kobe or D-Wade? If you stick to the script, it's almost impossible to make a mistake in the first two rounds, barring injury or tendency to over-hype (like my cousin Dan picking Greg Oden in Round Two last year). It's those middle round decisions and late-game steals that will determine your success. And because I have the vehicle to voice my opinion (in the form of the GameTime blog), I'm going to take a few minutes to talk about a few key players in this year's draft. Note: Rank = Yahoo O-Rank.

Early on: If you don't snare one of the top picks, take a good look at Amare Stoudemire (Rank = 9). I'd be willing to bet his numbers will be noticeably better than last year, when he was bugged by injuries and had to share the low post with Shaq, slowing down his normally up-tempo game. If you're in a Head-to-Head league, don't shy away from Dwight Howard (Rank = 20) amongst the Top Five. He can almost single-handedly win you FG%, rebounds and blocks and is a good source of points. If you do select him, it's imperative to structure your team so FT% isn't a huge priority. In a rotisserie league, Howard looks like more of a second or third round pick because of the negative impact in the free throw category.

Mid-rounds: Is Eric Gordon (Rank = 74) the next Michael Redd? Hopefully yes, and without the injuries. Gordon had a sound rookie year, demonstrated a sweet shot and ability to get to the rim, and it's clear the Clippers are banking on their young talent. The Brazilian Blur, Leandro Barbosa (Rank = 67), may be an undersized 2-guard, but he's perfect for the Phoenix Suns attack. And if you need the news flash, Grant Hill is a year older and Matt Barnes is gone from Phoenix. Barbosa should flourish  and get plenty of run in the up-tempo offense, a year after charting career highs in FG% and FT% despite paltry minutes. Andre Miller (Rank = 66) is a capable point guard who can't shoot threes, we know this, but he's in a better offensive attack than in Philly and will benefit from the move to Portland.

Derrick Rose (Rank = 51), if he can put the offseason controversy behind him, (which should be easy, as he's making millions of dollars to concentrate on his pro career and not look back on his high school and college mistakes) is a solid candidate to make "the leap" in Chicago. He proved his mettle in his first year and raised his game in the playoffs. Will he become an elite talent, improving on an already impressive rookie campaign? It remains to be seen, but 20 points and 8.5 assists is nothing to sneeze at, even if he doesn't shoot threes or get many steals.

Luis Scola (Rank = 92) will see an increased role in Houston with Yao out for the season and T-Mac down for a good chunk of it. He's undersized for the center position but is talented, improved in his second year, and should be a focal point of the offense with newcomer Trevor Ariza. I still don't like his haircut, however. Emeka Okafor (Rank = 82) has a sprained toe that has kept him out of the preseason schedule so far, but he will absolutely benefit from playing with a pure point guard in Chris Paul now that he's in New Orleans. Spencer Hawes (Rank = 80) made great strides in his second year, struggling some times and shining in others, and Sacramento has committed to him by shipping Brad Miller back to the Midwest. At 7-1, he can even shoot the three a little bit.

Late in the game: Don't sleep on Ramon Sessions (Rank = 113). Scott Skiles never used him properly in Milwaukee. He's not a perfect point guard, but he'll be starting in a talented, young Minnesota lineup and I think he's easily capable of 16 points, 7.5 assists, 4 rebounds and a steal every night out.  Not a bad line, even if, like Miller and Rose, he's not a three-point shooter. Plus, he isn't reckless with the ball (1.9 TO). Luol Deng (Rank = 101) is healthy and primed for a bounce-back year with the Bulls. And finally, Allen Iverson (Rank = 119), even though he's in a loaded backcourt with Mike Conley and O.J. Mayo (top-5 picks in the last two NBA Drafts), he might just be primed for a re-emergence on a mediocre but high-scoring Memphis squad. You could do a lot worse than A.I. with a late round pick.

The keys: if you're in a Head-to-Head league, pick 5 categories you know you can win and draft accordingly. For instance, with a slew of big men and a couple of elite point guards (say, Paul and Rajon Rondo) it's easy to win FG%, rebounds, assists, blocks and steals. In a rotisserie league, it's usually best to play it conservative and draft well-rounded players (without glaring flaws like high TO or terrible FT%) and go for one-or-two category savants later on. This will ensure that no one player can "kill" you in a single category - as it's difficult to recoup those lost points.

Hope this gives a little insight into the 2009 Fantasy Hoops picture. Good luck and happy drafting!