So apparently, the Red Sox are making a push for Roy Halladay again. As you may recall, the Sox had talks with the Blue Jays at the trading deadline for Halladay, but couldn't get a deal done and wound up grabbing Victor Martinez from Cleveland instead, a move that vastly improved the Boston offense in the second half. The deal breaker last July: the Jays were asking for too much of Boston's young talent. Four months later, the Sox are asking again, and the Jays reportedly want to see Clay Buchholz and Single A prospect Casey Kelly in return.
Look, there's no denying Halladay is great. He's one of the best pitchers of the decade, evidenced by his 130 wins over the last eight years. Take out freak injuries in 2003 and 2004 (two good campaigns nonetheless) and he's averaged more than 18 wins a year over that stretch. With a 3.13 ERA. He is everything the Red Sox wish Josh Beckett could be: consistently dominant. But Halladay's got one year left on his contract and, at 33 next May, will likely command one more big deal. Is one year of Halladay worth disposing of Buchholz, who seems to be a fine young pitcher, and Kelly, a 2008 first round pick?
Furthermore, wasn't the focus of the offseason supposed to be on improving the offense? With Jason Bay likely to depart, the Sox lineup lacks a 30 home run bat (David Ortiz and Kevin Youkilis top the list with 28 and 27 homers apiece last year) and looks weak against top-tier pitching, particularly in the playoffs. Gone are the days when Manny Ramirez and Ortiz would carve up postseason opposition like a Thanksgiving turkey. The Sox lineup is deep; no longer scary. So they need to make a deal for Adrian Gonzalez, right?
Here's what I'm thinking: the Sox feel a front three of Halladay, Lester and Beckett gives them a chance to win next year, which was supposed to be a "rebuilding" year. The free agent market is thin, and paying more than $15 million annually to Jason Bay for the next four or five years is foolish. The focus for 2010 will be on the starting rotation, a strong bullpen, and the hopes that Youkilis, Martinez and Dustin Pedroia can anchor an aging offense. Adrian Gonzalez is going to cost a lot, particularly since former Boston employee Jed Hoyer is running the show in San Diego and he knows what the Sox have on the farm. Buchholz and Kelly? Neither give the Sox a better chance to win in 2010 than Halladay does, and down the line, I'm not going to anoint Buchholz or that Single A prospect the seamheads love to rave about, Kelly, as sure things.
What's more, if the Sox sign Halladay, they'll let Beckett walk after 2010. Josh Beckett has been absolutely maddening in his four years in Boston. First, there was the "transition" year of 2006, with a 5.01 ERA. Then, there was his 2007 season where he challenged for the Cy Young Award and hauled the Sox through the playoffs. In 2008, he came into camp out of shape, got injured, never recovered and was useless in the postseason. In 2009, he got shelled in April, was All-Star caliber in May, June and July, then fell apart down the stretch, leading to another pedestrian postseason outing. It's time to give Beckett the cowboy boot out of town. The Sox will have plenty of money to spend in the winter of 2010 with the Ortiz, Lowell, Beckett, Varitek and Lugo (yes, him) contracts coming off the books and Josh Reddick ready to take over left field. They'll probably be looking for a new shortstop and some corner infield pop, and they'll be able to get it. And it's my prediction that Roy Halladay will be the ace of the Red Sox from 2010 on.
Look, there's no denying Halladay is great. He's one of the best pitchers of the decade, evidenced by his 130 wins over the last eight years. Take out freak injuries in 2003 and 2004 (two good campaigns nonetheless) and he's averaged more than 18 wins a year over that stretch. With a 3.13 ERA. He is everything the Red Sox wish Josh Beckett could be: consistently dominant. But Halladay's got one year left on his contract and, at 33 next May, will likely command one more big deal. Is one year of Halladay worth disposing of Buchholz, who seems to be a fine young pitcher, and Kelly, a 2008 first round pick?
Furthermore, wasn't the focus of the offseason supposed to be on improving the offense? With Jason Bay likely to depart, the Sox lineup lacks a 30 home run bat (David Ortiz and Kevin Youkilis top the list with 28 and 27 homers apiece last year) and looks weak against top-tier pitching, particularly in the playoffs. Gone are the days when Manny Ramirez and Ortiz would carve up postseason opposition like a Thanksgiving turkey. The Sox lineup is deep; no longer scary. So they need to make a deal for Adrian Gonzalez, right?
Here's what I'm thinking: the Sox feel a front three of Halladay, Lester and Beckett gives them a chance to win next year, which was supposed to be a "rebuilding" year. The free agent market is thin, and paying more than $15 million annually to Jason Bay for the next four or five years is foolish. The focus for 2010 will be on the starting rotation, a strong bullpen, and the hopes that Youkilis, Martinez and Dustin Pedroia can anchor an aging offense. Adrian Gonzalez is going to cost a lot, particularly since former Boston employee Jed Hoyer is running the show in San Diego and he knows what the Sox have on the farm. Buchholz and Kelly? Neither give the Sox a better chance to win in 2010 than Halladay does, and down the line, I'm not going to anoint Buchholz or that Single A prospect the seamheads love to rave about, Kelly, as sure things.
What's more, if the Sox sign Halladay, they'll let Beckett walk after 2010. Josh Beckett has been absolutely maddening in his four years in Boston. First, there was the "transition" year of 2006, with a 5.01 ERA. Then, there was his 2007 season where he challenged for the Cy Young Award and hauled the Sox through the playoffs. In 2008, he came into camp out of shape, got injured, never recovered and was useless in the postseason. In 2009, he got shelled in April, was All-Star caliber in May, June and July, then fell apart down the stretch, leading to another pedestrian postseason outing. It's time to give Beckett the cowboy boot out of town. The Sox will have plenty of money to spend in the winter of 2010 with the Ortiz, Lowell, Beckett, Varitek and Lugo (yes, him) contracts coming off the books and Josh Reddick ready to take over left field. They'll probably be looking for a new shortstop and some corner infield pop, and they'll be able to get it. And it's my prediction that Roy Halladay will be the ace of the Red Sox from 2010 on.
2 comments:
At 33 how many dominant years does he really have left? I'm afraid his next big contract will be "Pedro-esque" in that he would want a deal longer than his effectiveness will be good for.
But good pitching beats good hitting and if you want to win a championship this is what you need to do it.
How many? Since when is 33 "old" for a pitcher of Halladay's build and track record? Pedro was a little guy - that's different...and look at him and Andy Pettitte - both 37 or older, starring in last year's World Series. I'd say Halladay's good 'til he's 36 at least - a 4-5 year contract wouldn't be insane.
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